DONALD TRUMP AND THE CANCELLATION OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR AGREEMENT OR THE ART OF SELF-DEFENESTRATION.

"President Trump on Tuesday said he is pulling the United States out of the international nuclear deal with Iran, announcing that economic sanctions against Tehran will be reinstated and declaring that the 2015 pact was rooted in “fiction.” Trump’s decision, announced at the White House, makes good on a campaign pledge to undo an accord he has criticized as weak, poorly negotiated and “insane.” “The Iran deal is defective at its core. If we do nothing, we know exactly what will happen,” Trump said in remarks at the White House. “In just a short period of time, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror will be on the cusp of acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapons.” The move amounts to Trump’s most significant foreign policy decision to date. While he cast the U.S. action as essential for national security and a warning to Iran and any other nuclear aspirant that “the United States no longer makes empty threats,” it could also increase tensions with key U.S. allies that heavily lobbied the administration in recent weeks not to abandon the pact and see it as key to keeping peace in the region. They tried to convince Trump that his concerns about “flaws” in the accord could be addressed without violating its terms or ending it altogether".

Anne Gearan & Karen DeYoung, "Trump pulls United States out of Iran nuclear deal, calling the pact ‘an embarrassment’". The Washington Post. 8 May 2018, in www.washingtonpost.com.

"Trump is a performance artist focused on the theatrics of his announcements rather than the substance of his policies. His bombast often appears less menacing in retrospect. Early in his tenure, he withdrew in a huff from the Paris climate accords and the Transpacific Partnership (TPP). Not one of the other 193 signatories followed his lead in leaving the Paris accords. And amid tit-for-tat trade pronouncements by Washington and Beijing, Trump is contemplating rejoining the TPP. Trump enjoys considerable discretion in re-imposing sanctions. So it is not inconceivable that the Iran agreement will limp on. Whatever one thinks of the Obama administration’s approach, the endgame was clear. The economic pressure against Tehran was slowly raised. Space was created for a tradeoff between U.S. sanctions and Iranian centrifuges. In contrast, Trump’s withdrawal announcement, though it was hardly a surprise, offered no Plan B. Neither did the president outline a clear objective. Is Trump seeking a new agreement with Iran? Is he seeking the complete eradication of the Iranian nuclear program? Or is he seeking regime change in Iran? One could plausibly imply from his remarks any, or all, of these results. Sanctions alone will achieve none of them".

Perry Cammack, "Now What?" Carnegie Middle East Center. 9 May 2018, in www.carnegie-mec.org

There is on the face of it, and indeed elsewhere no, I repeat no rationale for American President Donald Trump's latest exercise in diplomatic pyrotechnics. The ending of the Iran / Persian nuclear agreement is sheer and unadulterated madness and insanity. The concessions that the Western powers obtained from Persia were the result of a long campaign of economic and diplomatic sanctions. There is absolutely no likelihood of a similar coalition of countries joining forces to pressure Persia into offering up more concessions. It is simply impossible. The entire method of Trumpian diplomacy (which au fond is the very negation of diplomacy), in announcing the decision has almost completely alienated America's closest allies in Europe. As the Financial Times noted: "The decision marks a bitter defeat for America’s European allies, who have spent months beseeching Mr Trump to stay in a deal" 1. As the always wise and cogent American defense expert Anthony Cordesman, recently stated, Trump's decision is flawed for any number of reasons:

"Provoking an avoidable near-term crisis over a nuclear threat that has largely been defused for at least several years will do nothing to unify support in dealing with these threats from counties like Britain, France, and Italy – or persuade them to build up their power projection capabilities. It will do nothing to unite America’s deeply divided Arab security partners – which now have virtually destroyed the Gulf Cooperation Council. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain have openly split with Qatar, Oman increasingly stands aside, and a deeply divided Kuwait seeks to mediate. Jordan is under growing economic and refugee pressure and was never integrated into Gulf defense, and Iraq seems to be tilting towards Iran and not the Arab states and the U.S. Seeking regime change in Iran is not a meaningful option. Any such effort ignores the fact that the Iranian government quickly suppressed the most recent demonstrations which were far more limited than those during the "green" uprisings in 2009-2010. The idea also ignores the fact that Iran has steadily been improving its internal security capabilities. Overt U.S.-led threats to Iran seem far more likely to increase popular support for the regime and its hardline elements than catalyze any meaningful resistance" 2.

In short President Trump's decision is the ultimate example of a own-goal. Diplomatically, strategically and in every other sense. It has no logic or rationale. It is purely a self-defeating exercise.

1. Sam Fleming & Katrina Manson, "Donald Trump pulls US out of Iran nuclear deal: President’s decision to re-impose sanctions is defeat for European allies". The Financial Times. 8 May 2018, in www.ft.com.

2. Anthony Cordesman, "Iran and the May 12th Deadline: Finding Winning Compromises". Center for Strategic and International Studies. 1st May 2018, in www.csis.org.